Scenario Testing

We test a series of potential algorithms to see which is the best fit for your company. All these tests are performed on your historical data. That allows us to see the patterns in the data and the elements that are causing problems. 

Don't rely on due dates

In this example, we found that relying on the customer invoice due dates would mean that the forecast would have been more than 20% in error in 47 weeks out of a 53 week year. We tested various scenarios and found that the best algorithm was to adjust the due dates based on the average delay at a customer level adjusted for variability. In this case the variability was being caused by the erratic payment behaviour of a significant proportion of customers.
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Sometimes a forecast error correction model can be helpful. In this example, that was not the case.

Garbage In, Garbage Out

The best algorithm may not prove to be enough to get an accurate forecast.

• Outliers are usually caused by poor process or communications

• Some process issues may need to be identified and corrected before an algorithm can work properly
• Some events cannot be predicted using only data. The business will need to know what events need to be communicated in advance

Our Process

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